Are The Himalayan Glaciers Melting or Not?

An interesting new study published in the science journal Nature shows that the high altitude glaciers of Tibet have barely melted at all in the last decade.


Glaciers near Kunzom La, Spiti Valley


This study and its findings on the glaciers of Tibet are unique and significant. The study takes a first comprehensive look at the planet's glaciers and ice caps using data sent by a pair of satellites.

The findings on the Himalayan glaciers have shocked scientists. In the past, scientists have repeatedly said that the Himalayan glaciers are retreating at an alarming rate due to climate warming. This discourse was strong enough for the UN (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports) to make claims such as: the Himalayan glaciers �are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate�
(IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2007, p. 493).

Later the statement was found to be based on rumours published by environmental groups and magazines. The head of the IPCC, Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, had to come out and offer a formal apology for this blunder and said that more studies are needed to confirm the status of these glaciers.

Was it all rumours and no scientific backing to the claims about the melting of Himalayan glaciers?

It seems that most of the past studies were done on low lying glaciers. Measurements and observations were often conducted at the 'tongue' of glaciers, which are mostly at lower altitudes, which, the study published in Nature confirms, are indeed melting faster due to climate warming. What they found is that the higher up glaciers are cold enough to escape the melting in the last decade.

All this is interesting, and hopefully, true. I know from my field studies in the arid Western Himalayas that people there are directly dependent on these glaciers for their water supply.

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EU to ?heck Safety of All Its 143 Nuclear Reactors

Kyodo News, Brussels, Mar 15, 2011
The European Union agreed Tuesday to check the safety of all 143 nuclear reactors operating in its 14 member countries [please see my remarks below -- D.R.] in the wake of a nuclear crisis at the quake-hit Fukushima nuclear plant in northeastern Japan.

The European Union made the decision at an emergency meeting of energy ministers of its 27 member countries. Several reactors in the EU region have a structure similar to that of reactors at the Fukushima No. 1 [Daiichi] nuclear power plant, the European Commission said.

As serious accidents hit reactors in Japan, a country deemed to have some of the world's highest safety standards, the European Union is under pressure to review the safety of nuclear power generation, which it has billed as a source of safe and clean energy not emitting global warming gases.

EU Energy Commissioner G�nther Oettinger said at a press conference that the nuclear safety checks will address all possible threats, including earthquakes, tsunami and terrorist attacks.

The European Union will also test the durability of a cooling system of those nuclear reactors in view of cooling system problems experienced at the Fukushima nuclear power plant. It will also check a backup power supply system taking lessons from Japan, where electricity shortage is becoming serious with the suspension of nuclear power plant operations.

The commission said Tuesday it is extremely unlikely that Europe will experience an earthquake similar in size to the one that hit northeastern Japan, apparently in an effort to allay fears over its nuclear reactors.

Also at the emergency meeting were officials from nuclear watchdog authorities and power companies from member countries. They will work out details for safety checks in cooperation with the European Union and member state governments. [Full story]

(Also, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that seven reactors that went into operation before 1980 would be offline for three months while Europe's biggest economy reconsiders its plans to extend the life of its atomic power plants in the wake of events in Japan---please see my posts here and here. One of them, the 840MW Neckarwestheim I reactor, would remain shut down for good. A previous government decided a decade ago to shut all 17 German nuclear reactors by 2021, but Merkel's administration last year moved to extend their lives by an average 12 years. That decision was suspended for three months on Monday. Energy policies in the EU are still driven independently by member nations and vary hugely. For example, France gets about 75% of its energy from nuclear power, while Poland relies mostly on coal and solid fuels. France's 58 nuclear reactors make France the second-biggest user of nuclear power in the world after the United States, where 104 reactors deliver 20% of the country's electricity. In the EU 143 nuclear power plants are in use: Belgium (7), Bulgaria (2), Czech Republic (6), Finland (4), France (58), Germany (17), Hungary (4), Netherlands (1), Romania (2), Slovakia (4), Slovenia (1), Spain (8), Sweden (10), and UK (19). Before the Fukushima disaster, Italy and Poland planned to built nuclear power plants. Switzerland, which is not in the EU, on Monday suspended plans to replace and build new nuclear plants pending a review of the tsunami-stricken reactors in Japan. -- D.R.)

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EPA Approves E15 for MY2001-2006 Cars and Light Trucks

by David Rachovich
On January 21 the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) approved an E15 waiver for model year (MY) 2001 through 2006 passenger vehicles, including cars, SUVs, and light pickup trucks.

The EPA on October 13, 2010, granted a waiver for E15 fuel---a blend of 15 percent ethanol and 85 percent gasoline---to be used only in MY2007 and newer light-duty motor vehicles (i.e., cars, light-duty trucks and medium-duty passenger vehicles). Previously, fuel blends were limited to a maximum of 10 percent ethanol, i.e., E10 -- Please read my remarks at the end of the related article here.

"These decisions were based on test results provided by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and other information regarding the potential effect of E15 on vehicle emissions. Taken together, the two actions allow, but do not require, E15 to be introduced into commerce for use in MY2001 and newer light-duty motor vehicles if conditions for mitigating misfueling and ensuring fuel quality are met. EPA is in the process of completing work on regulations that would provide a more practical means of meeting the conditions," said EPA. (see EPA' website here)

EPA's decisions will give a major boost to the biofuels industry. Also, biofuels like ethanol and other blends would help reduce foreign oil demand and greenhouse gas emissions.  

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Emerging Economies to Lead Energy Growth to 2030 and Renewables to Out-Grow Oil, Says BP Analysis

BP website, Jan 19, 2011
World energy growth over the next twenty years is expected to be dominated by emerging economies such as China, India, Russia and Brazil while improvements in energy efficiency measures are set to accelerate, according to BP�s latest projection of energy trends, the BP Energy Outlook 2030.

BP's 'base case' - or most likely projection - points to primary energy use growing by nearly 40% over the next twenty years, with 93% of the growth coming from non-OECD (Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development) countries. Non-OECD countries are seen to rapidly increase their share of overall energy demand from just over half currently to two-thirds.

Over the same period, energy intensity, a key measure of energy use per unit of economic output, is set to improve globally led by rapid efficiency gains in the same non-OECD economies, under these projections.

According to the BP Energy Outlook, diversification of energy sources increases and non-fossil fuels (nuclear, hydro and renewables) are together expected to be the biggest source of growth for the first time. Between 2010 to 2030 the contribution to energy growth of renewables (solar, wind, geothermal and biofuels) is seen to increase from 5% to 18%. [According to BP, the rate at which renewables penetrate the global energy market is similar to the emergence of nuclear power in the 1970s and 1980s. -- D.R.] 

Natural gas is projected to be the fastest growing fossil fuel, and coal and oil are likely to lose market share as all fossil fuels experience lower growth rates. Fossil fuels� contribution to primary energy growth is projected to fall from 83% to 64%. [...] 

BP�s �base case� projections are that world primary energy demand growth averages 1.7% per year from 2010 to 2030 although growth decelerates slightly beyond 2020. Non-OECD energy consumption will be 68% higher by 2030 averaging 2.6% per year growth, and accounts for 93% of global energy growth. In contrast, OECD growth averages 0.3% per year to 2030; and from 2020 OECD energy consumption per capita is on a declining trend of -0.2% per year.

Transport growth is seen to slow because of a decline in the OECD. The region�s total demand for oil and other liquids peaked in 2005 and will be back at roughly the level of 1990 by 2030. Toward the end of the period, coal demand in China will no longer be rising and China is projected to become the world�s largest oil consumer. [According to the BP Outlook, China is the largest source of oil consumption growth, with consumption forecast to grow by 8 million barrels a day to reach 17.5 million barrels a day by 2030, overtaking the United States to become the world's largest oil consumer -- D.R.] 

OPEC�s share of global oil production is set to increase to 46%, a position not seen since 1977. At the same time, oil - and gas - import dependency in the US is likely to fall to levels not seen since the 1990s, because of improved fuel efficiency and the increased share of biofuels. Global consumption growth is also impacted by higher oil prices in recent years and a gradual reduction of subsidies in oil-importing countries.

The fuel mix changes over time, reflecting long asset lifetimes. Oil, excluding bio-fuels, will grow relatively slowly at 0.6% per year; natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel with more than three times the projected growth rate of oil at 2.1% per year. Coal will increase by 1.2% per year and by 2030 it is likely to provide virtually as much energy as oil excluding biofuels. The strong carbon policy drive in OECD countries risks being more than offset by growth in emerging economies. [Among non-fossil fuels, renewables are expected to grow at 8.2% per year from 2010 to 2030.] 

Wind, solar, bio-fuels and other renewables continue to grow strongly, increasing their share in primary energy from less than 2% now to more than 6% projected by 2030. Biofuels will provide 9% of transport fuels and nuclear and hydropower will grow steadily and gain market share in total energy consumption.

�The slowing of growth in total energy in transport is related to higher oil prices and improving fuel economy, vehicle saturation in mature economies, and expected increases in taxation and subsidy reduction in developing economies,� said R�hl. �In percentage terms, oil demand is reduced the most in the power sector (-30%) because this is the easiest oil to displace with gas or renewables and is the sector most likely to employ carbon pricing.� [...]

Global liquids demand is forecast to reach 102.4 million barrels per day (mmbpd) in 2030. The net growth of 16.5 mmbpd over the next 20 years comes exclusively from the emerging economies of the non-OECD. �Non-OECD Asia will account for nearly two-thirds of non-OECD consumption growth over the next 20 years and more than three-quarters of the net global increase, rising by nearly 13 million barrels a day,� said R�hl.

The largest increments of new supply will come from OPEC � conventional crude in Saudi Arabia and Iraq, as well as OPEC natural gas liquids (NGLs) which are not subject to OPEC quotas.�

Non-OPEC liquids are likely to rise modestly, driven by a large increase in biofuels, along with smaller increments from Canadian oil sands, deepwater Brazil, and the FSU which offset continued declines in mature provinces. [...]

According to the Energy Outlook�s projections, oil continues to suffer a long run decline in market share, while gas steadily gains share. Coal�s recent gains in market share, on the back of rapid industrialisation in China and India in particular, are reversed by 2030, with all three fossil fuels converging on market shares around 27%. [...]

Biofuels production is expected to reach 6.7 mmbpd by 2030 from 1.8 mmbpd in 2010 and will contribute 125% of net non-OPEC supply growth over the next 20 years. Continued policy support, high oil prices, and continued technological innovations all contribute to the rapid expansion.

The US and Brazil will continue to dominate biofuel production with 76% of total output in 2010 but falling to 68% in 2030 as output from Asia-Pacific begins to rise. [Read More]

(The BP Energy Outlook 2030 is the first of BP�s forward-looking analyses to be published, after 60 years of producing definitive historical data in the BP Statistical Review of World Energy. The Energy Outlook has been used only internally so far. Prof. Christof R�hl is Chief Economist of BP plc. The BP Energy Outlook 2030 is available in pdf format here  -- D.R.)

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China: The World's Largest Energy Consumer and Investor in Clean Energy

PR Newswire via EIN News: Oil & Gas Industry Today, Jan 12, 2011

New Wilson Center Publication Explores China's Energy and Climate Trends

In 2010 China achieved number one status in two infamous categories: energy consumption and carbon emissions. In the same year, however, it was also the world's number one investor in clean energy, nearly doubling the U.S. investment over the same period.

While counterintuitive, these are just some of the indicators of the intriguing trends in China's energy and environment sectors. This China Environment Forum publication takes a deep look into fast changing energy and climate trends within China and how they pose opportunities and challenges to U.S.-China relations.

"China and the United States are the two largest national emitters of the greenhouse gases that contribute to global climate change, and together comprise almost half of global emissions. Any global solution to climate change must therefore include participation by these two countries." �Joanna Lewis, Georgetown University.

Highlights of the report include:

• An extensive overview of the history of U.S.-China climate and energy cooperation
• The status and potential of carbon capture and sequestration in China
• Spotlights on NGO activities in China
• Extensive articles looking into green jobs, MRV issues, U.S.-China cooperation on renewables,  industrial energy efficiency, and water pollution and supply issues within China

Read the China Environment Forum's China Environment Series 11. [Full]

(The IEA data--World Energy Outlook 2010 - Executive Summary--suggests that China overtook the United States in 2009 to become the world's largest energy consumer. Srikingly, Chinese energy use was only half that of the United States in 2000 -- D.R.)

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Enoc Opens Middle East's First Green Service Station

AMEinfo.com Jan 5, 2011
[Dubai's] Emirates National Oil Company (Enoc) has launched the first 'green service station' in the Middle East at the Emirates Hills neighbourhood in Dubai. [See image below -- D.R.] Underscoring the commitment of the company to the sustainable development initiatives of the UAE, the new eco-friendly service station has a range of unique features all aimed at reducing the ecological footprint of the users.

Among the innovative green initiatives at the station are advanced technological devices to contain petrol fumes released at the pump, and a variety of other state-of-the-art systems, including solar-powered lighting [i.e. solar panels], a 'waterless' car-washing system, new waste segregation systems, and design upgrades to reduce noise pollution. ...

The station generates half of its energy requirements from renewable sources. The site uses Solar Powered Pole and LED lights, with a long life span of up to 50,000 hours and low voltage safe against electrical fire hazards. These lamps do not need to be replaced for up to 12 years. ...

Sustainable water features have also been installed to cut water consumption by a quarter. The new service station recycles car-wash water and also provides customers the option to use a waterless car wash system, which cleans car without using a single drop of water.

The waterless car wash concept saves water and prevents detergents from polluting the environment with its new 'No-Wet' technique, an all-in-one eco-friendly car wash liquid. Made from all natural ingredients, the product does not contain petroleum distillates, silicone, abrasives, harmful chemicals or detergents that pollute water. ...

Enoc's environmentally-friendly engine oils PROTEC Green for gasoline engines and VULCAN Green for diesel engines will be available. Both are designed to ensure longer life span for vehicles and lower levels of greenhouse gas emissions.

The green Very Low Sulfur Diesel (VLSD) will also be available at the service station. This innovative diesel contains 10 times less sulfur than the standard one, which means a cleaner engine for cars and a cleaner environment.

Other key environmentally-friendly products include Hiclone fuel-saving devices. When installed on the vehicle, Hiclone improves fuel economy and engine efficiency while helping decrease air and noise pollution. Hiclone can decrease carbon footprint by 60%, as it reduces incomplete combustion and harmful emissions. It can also enhance the towing efficiency, reduce fuel consumption by 20%, and add 10% to the car's power. Moreover, the uniform movement of the pistons minimizes engine noise and prevents abnormal abrasion. Read Full

(See a related video at http://www.ameinfo.com/252979.html -- D.R.)

Credit: Megan Hirons Mahon/Gulf News, here. Description: The brand new Enoc green service station in the Meadows. It recovers released vapour from petrol pumps and storage tanks and condenses it back to fuel.

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S Korea to Make Biodiesel Use Mandatory from 2012; Ahead of Schedule

Platts, Jan 7, 2011
South Korea has decided to make the use of biodiesel mandatory starting 2012, one year earlier than originally scheduled, in an effort to reduce the consumption of fossil fuel, the energy ministry said Thursday.

The Ministry of Knowledge Economy, responsible for energy, industry and commerce, has set the required biodiesel mix rate at 2% from 2012 under a Renewable Portfolio Standard aimed at boosting supplies of renewable energy.

"We will introduce a mandatory biodiesel mix rate system from 2012 as tax benefits on biodiesel will expire by the end of 2011," the ministry said in a statement. "This is expected to help in the recycling of waste resources and raise the country's energy independence," it said.

Biodiesel, a mixture of diesel fuel and biofuel made from grains such as soybean, palm and rapeseed, voluntarily makes up 2% of all diesel consumed in the country. The government has waived taxes for clean-burning biodiesel to boost consumption of the clean-burning fuel.

South Korea, the world's fifth-largest crude importer, became the first Asian country to mix biodiesel with conventional diesel in 2007 when refiners began selling diesel blended with 0.5% rape seed oil to local consumers. The blend has risen by 0.5% every year to 1% in 2008 and 1.5% this year.

In an effort to boost biodiesel consumption, South Korea would commercialize animal biodiesel and actively develop overseas farms, while investing in research and development for the next generation of biodiesel under its long-term plan, the statement said.

South Korean eventually aims to increase the portion of biofuel to 20% in diesel fuel after technology and safety problems are resolved. The engines on some vehicles running on the blend of 20%, or BD20, abruptly cut out during test runs. Biodiesel has a lower freezing temperature than regular diesel.
"More use of biodiesel would help cut South Korea's import of crude and reduce greenhouse gas emissions," the ministry official said. [Full story]

(With no domestic oil reserves, South Korea must import all of its crude oil. Compare South Korea's drive to reduce foreign oil dependency and greenhouse gas emissions with similar U.S. efforts, here.
It is worth adding that South Korea relies also on imports to satisfy nearly all of its natural gas consumption. It does not have any international gas pipeline connections, and must therefore import all gas via liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers. Consequently, although South Korea is not among the group of top gas-consuming nations, it is the world's second largest importer of LNG after Japan. -- D.R.)

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US Ethanol Production Hit All-Time High in October: EIA Data

Platts, Dec 31, 2010
US monthly production of fuel ethanol reached an all-time high in October, figures released Thursday by the US Energy Information Administration show.

In October, US producers manufactured 27,410,000 barrels of fuel ethanol, up from 26,061,000 in September. The previous record was set in August, at 26,963,000 barrels, according to EIA's data.

The agency's data also showed stocks declined in October, to 17,295,000 barrels, from 17,408,000 barrels at end-September.

The US imported no fuel ethanol in October, EIA's report showed.

Industry analyst Andy Lipow calculated the percentage of ethanol in the US gasoline pool at 9.5% for October by converting the October ethanol production figure to 884,200 b/d, using US Department of Agriculture data to put exports at 26,800 b/d, and factoring in the stock draw.

Using EIA figures, Lipow calculated the overall October demand in the US for fuel ethanol to be 861,000 b/d. EIA put gasoline demand for October at 9,086,000 b/d, resulting in his 9.5% of the gasoline pool figure.

The January-to-October figures show average fuel ethanol production of 851,300 b/d, imports of ... , consumption of 825,700 b/d, and gasoline consumption of 9,054,000 b/d. This put ethanol at 9.1% of the US gasoline pool, according to Lipow.

The percentage of ethanol in the total pool of gasoline is significant in that a typical gallon of ethanol-blended gasoline has 10% ethanol in it; the 9.5% figure shows that ethanol has nearly saturated the US market.

The US Renewable Fuel Standard will push the required use of ethanol in coming years to well over the 10% of the gasoline pool. To that end, the Environmental Protection Agency has changed regulations to allow up to 15% blends in newer US vehicles. Automakers and gasoline sellers have criticized that move, citing insufficient testing of the new fuel in engines.

(Ethanol is a renewable fuel made from various plant materials, which collectively are called "biomass." In the United States it is most commonly produced from corn and used in gasoline at volume fractions of 10 percent or less, creating a fuel called E10 or "gasohol." Low-level blends, up to E10 (10% ethanol, 90% gasoline), are classified as "substantially similar" to gasoline by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), meaning they can be used legally in any gasoline-powered vehicle. On October 13, 2010, the EPA partially granted Growth Energy's waiver request application submitted under section 211(f)(4) of the Clean Air Act. This partial waiver will allow fuel and fuel additive manufacturers to introduce into commerce gasoline that contains greater than 10 volume percent (vol%) ethanol and up to 15 vol% ethanol (E15) for use only in model year (MY) 2007 and newer light-duty vehicles (i.e., cars, light-duty trucks and medium-duty passenger vehicles) once certain other conditions are fulfilled. -- See here . E10 has also been mandated in the state of Florida by Dec 31, 2010. -- See Ethanol Blend Mandate, here. It is important to emphasize that ethanol is increasingly available in E85 (i.e. 85% ethanol, 15% gasoline) -- see photos below, an alternative fuel that can be used in flexible fuel vehicles. Studies have estimated that ethanol and other biofuels could replace 30% or more of U.S. gasoline demand by 2030. -- See here.
                                                  Biofuels pumps

                                           Source: www.fueleconomy.gov here   

Source: http://news.tennesseeanytime.org/ here. Description: Green Island Grants support retail E85 and B20 pumps like these at a station along I-65 in Goodlettesville, just north of Nashville.  

E10 and other blends would help reduce foreign oil demand and greenhouse gas emissions. B20, shown in the photos above, is a mixture of 20 percent biodiesel and 80 percent petroleum diesel and can be used in almost all diesel engines without modifications. Biodiesel is a clean, renewable fuel produced from vegetable oils, such as soybeans, or animal fats. B20 is the most common biodiesel blend in the United States. Using B20 provides substantial benefits but avoids many of the cold-weather performance and material compatibility concerns associated with B100. -- D.R.)

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World Energy Outlook 2010 (Presentation to the Press)

by the International Energy Agency (IEA), London, November 9, 2010
WEO-2010 projects global energy production and consumption out to 2035. Here are some of the highlights [my emphases, D.R.] of the IEA report/forecast:

• Oil production becomes less crude - Global oil production reaches 96 mb/d in 2035 on the back of rising output of natural gas liquids & unconventional oil, as crude oil production plateaus.
• More oil from fewer producers - Production rises most in Saudi Arabia & Iraq, helping to push OPEC's market share from 41% today to 52% by 2035, a level last seen prior to the first oil shock of 1973-1974.
• Caspian energy riches could enhance global energy security - Kazakhstan drives an increase in Caspian oil production to 5.2 mb/d by 2035, while Turkmenistan & Azerbaijan push up gas production to over 310 bcm.
• International oil price assumptions - The age of cheap oil is over, though policy action could bring lower international prices than would otherwise be the case. More

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Woser's article on "Tibet's Water Pollution and China's 'Global Warming'" on HPPE

There is a really good Chinese language article on pollution of Lhasa River and problems associated with mining at Gyama village of Meldro Gungkar county by Woser, the premier Tibetan blogger. You can read an English translation of the article by High Peaks Pure Earth. Check out the striking photographic evidences of the problems with water pollution and mining in the region.

The Gyama mine is now owned by a Canadian company named Jinshan. I have written about human rights implications and Canada's involvement in these projects. See: Canada and Crime Against the Tibetan People

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Carbon emissions and the Tibetans

The prominent scientific journal, Nature, has an article about climate change and Tibet in its July 2008 issue. It is titled The Third Pole and is written by Jane Qiu. Apart from regurgitating the usual alarmist trends, the article highlights the significance of �black carbon� as a major heat-absorbing contributor of atmospheric warming. Black carbon adds about 50% of the solar heating of earth�s atmosphere, and is the second largest (carbon dioxide being the first) cause of atmospheric warming over Tibet.

At first I was struck by the author's definition of black carbon as �the soot that results when people cook with bio-fuels such as wood, crop waste or dung.� Even more surprisingly, the author identifies Himalayas as a global hotspot for black-carbon emissions. When I told this to my advisor, he was skeptical considering the sparse population and low economic activity in Tibet. So I did some research. I read the two key studies that she had cited in the paper. I found that her description of black carbon and Himalayan region�s contribution of the soot are not accurate.

Qiu had only referred to one of the two categories of black-carbon sources. The original study, �Global and regional climate changes due to black carbon� by Ramanathan and Carcimichael had defined black carbon as comprising of two categories of sources: 1) in door sources such as the use of �biofuels like wood, dung and crop residue; and 2) outdoor sources such as fossil fuel combustion (dieseland coal), open biomass burning (associated with deforestation and crop residue burning), and cooking with biofuels� (R&C, p. 21).

So there are more than just bio-fuels that make up black-carbon. That�s more acceptable, but still how could Himalayas be one of the global hotspots for black-carbon emissions? The region, even in the Southern face of the Himalayas in India, is not that densely populated, nor is it economically developed. Shimla, the capital city of the state of the Indian state of Himachal Pradesh, may be one of the greatest contributors of black-carbon in the Indian Himalayas, but even Shimla cannot be that severe. As it turns out in Ramanathan and Carcimichael's study, the Himalayas is at the borderline between high and low black-carbon emitting regions. The Indo-Gangetic plains and the plains of �mainland China� are two of the major hotspots, not the Himalayas. The Tibetan plateau is clearly one of the lowest contributors of black-carbon, as shown in two simulated images of annual mean optical depth of black-carbon aerosols in the region (p. 225). My advisor�s skepticism was astute.

With these doubts clarified, I found two new (to me) noteworthy points:

1. Although CO2 and black carbon are the main contributors to atmospheric warming, water vapour actually has a even stronger greenhouse effect if measured per molecule. Water vapour is apparently not a big concern because it normally reaches no higher than 1�2 kilometres below the stratosphere, the layer of atmosphere which contains the most ozone. Research mentioned in the article says that climate warming (evaporation) and wind blowing over the plateau can transfer water vapour and pollutants (black carbon!) into the stratosphere. If this is true, one can speculate the implications, things could get pretty complicated and worrisome for the glaciers and snows of Tibet.

2. The article also touches on debates on the implications of the plateau's warming for the Monsoon. The obvious argument is that the increased (land) surface temperature would augment monsoon (higher temperature over land means more intense monsoon winds from the sea). However, studies indicate that the plateau has had a weakening effect on the monsoon (Fig. 4, R&C, p. 224). This is perhaps due to changes in land use patterns and aerosols that absorb solar radiation. Still, it seems there is not sufficient studies to conclude this or that on this debate.

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Effects of global warming on Tibetan farmers and nomads

Is it fair if the climate costs of development of industrialized economies such as US and China are borne by subsistence-based societies like those of Tibetans and the Inuits? Should the victims of climate change be compensated by its perpetrators? What if Tibetan nomads and pastoralists are being blamed and forcefully relocated for grassland degradation that is caused by global warming? Read an article by Professor Julia Klein of Colorado State University addressing some of these issues.


Climate Change as a Human Rights Issue for Subsistence-Based Societies
By Julia Klein
Source: ource: Trin-Gyi-Pho-Nya [???????????????], Tibet Justice Center, Vol. 2, No. 6, January 2005.

In December 2004, a meeting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change took place in Buenos Aires, Argentina, in anticipation of the upcoming entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol. At the same time, the Inuit -- 155,000 seal-hunting peoples scattered around the Arctic -- announced they were preparing a petition to the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights stating that the United States, by contributing substantially to global warming, is threatening their existence. The Inuit people's lives and culture depend upon the Arctic ice. Scientists have concluded that climate change caused predominantly by human influences is causing that ice to melt and causing other impacts to the Inuit way of life. In their petition, the Inuit assert that because the United States is responsible for 25% or more of the greenhouse gas emissions that are contributing to climate change, the United States has an international obligation to prevent these human rights violations. The Inter-American Commission will forward the petition to the United States, which is the respondent, hold a series of hearings on the matter and determine whether this constitutes a violation of human rights.


[Photo by Raul Gutierrez]

Just as the Inuit rely on the arctic ice for their subsistence, Tibetan pastoralists depend on the alpine rangelands of the Tibetan Plateau for their survival. The pastoralists rely on the rangeland vegetation to convert the sun's energy into products - via domestic herbivores - that form the basis of their culture and subsistence. These products include food, clothing, housing, fuel, stored wealth, and transportation. The Tibetans also directly rely on vegetation for goods such as medicinal plants and other products.

Scientists, range managers and development personnell working on the Tibetan Plateau have primarily ignored issues of climate warming effects on the Tibetan rangelands. Rather, they have focused on the Tibetan rangelands with respect to grazing issues. The Tibetan rangeland debate is often couched in terms of whether the Tibetans are "rational" or "irrational" land managers, whether animal densities are increasing or decreasing on the Tibetan Plateau, the merits and drawbacks of fencing and sedentarization, and the effects of small mammal grazing on the rangelands. While most of these issues are very important, they should be studied in the context of a changing underlying climatic condition. These topics also highlight the propensity for scientists, range managers and development personnell working on the Tibetan Plateau to observe rangeland degradation, observe grazing animals (or fences or small mammals), and make a causal connection between the two based on observation rather than a valid scientific analysis of cause and effect.

While very little research has been conducted on how climate warming may affect ecosystem goods and services on the Tibetan Plateau, work has recently been published in the scientific literature (Klein et al. 2004) that shows climate warming could cause as much as a 36% decline in plant species diversity on the northeastern region of the Tibetan Plateau. This includes declines in medicinal plant species and palatable forage species richness. This work also indicates warming could reduce overall vegetative productivity and increase shrub encroachment in this region of the Tibetan Plateau (Klein 2003).

There is a consensus among the scientific community that much of the present climate warming on Earth is due to human activities (IPCC 2001). According to the New York Times, the United States was the only country at the climate meetings in Buenos Aires which continues to question the climate change science. There is also evidence that climate warming is occurring on the Tibetan Plateau (Thompson et al. 2000). China, which ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 1992, is the second largest emitter of greenhouse gases, but per capita emissions of global warming pollutants in China are just 15 percent of U.S. levels. China accepted no mandatory greenhouse gas emissions target under the Protocol -- only developed countries are subject to binding emission targets in the Kyoto Protocol's first emission control period, 2008 to 2012.

Climate warming is an unusual environmental problem because the primary actors driving the changes can be far removed from the most vulnerable recipients of the climate change effects. This large spatial disconnect between drivers and recipients is due to the nature of greenhouse gases, which mix relatively rapidly in the atmosphere across the globe. The Inuit people can assert their rights in the international arena because there has been careful documentation of climate change in the arctic, because the ecological and social impacts of climate change on the Inuit people have been rigorously studied for over a decade, and because supporters of the Inuit people recognize the links between politics, human rights and climate change. The Tibetan pastoralists, who are potentially highly vulnerable to climate change impacts, will also need to rely on rigorous science and an interested community to assert their rights to a resource base that is being affected by anthropogenic climate changes and to bring this issue to the attention of the international community.

References cited:
1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2001. Climate change 2001: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ed. Houghton, J.T., Griggs, D.J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P.J., Dai, X., Maskell, K., & Johnson, C.A.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
2. Klein, J.A., J. Harte & X.Q. Zhao. 2004. Experimental warming causes large and rapid species loss, dampened by simulated grazing, on the Tibetan Plateau. Ecology Letters 7(12) 1170-1179.
3. Klein, Julia A. 2003. Climate warming and pastoral land use change: implications for carbon cycling, biodiversity and rangeland quality on the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau, PhD Thesis, University of California, Berkeley.
4. Thompson L.G., Yao T., Mosley-Thompson E., Davis M.E., Henderson K.A. & Lin P.-N. (2000) A high-resolution millennial record of the South Asian monsoon from Himalayan ice cores. Science, 289, 1916-1919.

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